Limits Drive Discipline
At Terminus E.F.A., we use macroeconomic forecasting to turn uncertainty into structured expectations. Those expectations become a disciplined investment process: define limits, set targets, and act with consistency across cycles.
Forecasts create expectations
Our forecasts help you form a clear baseline view of growth, inflation, labor conditions, central bank policy, and key market variables. Instead of reacting to headlines, you operate with an evidence-based expectation framework—what is likely, what is changing, and what would invalidate the view.
Defined limits and targets
Better expectations lead to better boundaries. We help you translate forecasts into practical limits and targets: position sizing ranges, risk budgets, drawdown tolerance, and price/level triggers that define when to add, reduce, hedge, or exit.
Risk reduced, risk managed
Risk doesn’t disappear—it becomes measurable and manageable. With scenario ranges and explicit assumptions, you can anticipate where volatility may rise, where correlations may shift, and which exposures are likely to dominate portfolio outcomes, then hedge accordingly.
Portfolio Optimization
Forecast-driven inputs improve portfolio construction because they bring structure to expected returns, expected risk, and cross-asset relationships. That supports clearer diversification choices, more consistent rebalancing, and better alignment between your objectives and the risk you are actually taking.
Targeting sectors and countries
Macroeconomic regimes reward different assets at different times. Our work helps you target the sectors and countries that are most consistent with the current and forward-looking cycle—so your allocations follow the environment (rates, inflation, growth momentum, liquidity) rather than fighting it.
Markets are cyclical because economies are cyclical. Our forecasting process is designed to prepare decisions for this cyclicality—identifying shifts in regime early, stress-testing portfolios across plausible paths, and helping you position with discipline before the cycle forces reactive moves.
Built for economic cyclicality
Not sure how Terminus can improve your investment decisions?
Book an orientation call and we will guide you exactly on where forecasts can add value to limits and hedges.